Progressive Change in Venezuela
and Latin America
by Mark Weisbrot, The Nation
www.zmag.org, December 8, 2007
The defeat of the Venezuelan government's
proposed constitutional reforms last Sunday will probably not
change very much in Venezuela. Most of what was in the reforms
can be enacted through the legislature. This is especially true
for the progressive reforms: social security pensions for informal
sector workers, free university education, the prohibition of
discrimination based on gender and sexual orientation. The negative
elements, such as expanding the government's powers in a state
of emergency, probably wouldn't have changed much if they had
passed. The Chavez government has never declared a state of emergency,
and did not invoke any special powers even when most democratic
governments in the world would have done so, e.g. during the oil
strike of 2002-2003, which crippled the economy and almost toppled
the government for the second time in a year; or after the April
2002 military coup. (It is also worth noting that even if they
had passed, the amendments wouldn't have given the Venezuelan
government the authority to commit the worst infringements on
civil liberties that the Bush administration has made in its "war
on terror.")__
Chavez's proposal to scrap term limits
was defeated, but he has more than five years to try again if
he wants. But even if this is his last term, the changes underway
in Venezuela will not likely be reversed when he steps down.__
Most importantly, the character of the
political battles in Venezuela has not changed. The popular presentation
of this contest as between pro-Chavez and anti-Chavez forces is
misleading. It is a struggle of left versus right, with the two
sides divided and polarized along the lines of class, democracy,
national sovereignty, and race.
For these reasons, in the past eight years
there has been very little progressive or even liberal political
opposition to the Chavez government in Venezuela - just as there
were no progressive or liberal organizations in the United States
that supported President George W. Bush for re-election in 2004.
Venezuela is politically polarized - much more so than the United
States. __
The referendum shifted these political
dividing lines only very slightly, and very likely temporarily.
Some within the pro-government coalition opposed the reforms;
and it appears that the amendments failed mainly because a great
many of Chavez's supporters didn't vote. But there is no indication
that these people have shifted to the opposition camp, and polls
show that Chavez and the government remain highly popular. And
the opposition to the government is still a right-wing opposition,
despite the addition of a mostly-well-off student movement that
is more ideologically mixed - including the student opposition
leader Stalin Gonzalez, who recently defended his namesake in
the Wall Street Journal.__
With regard to democracy, there has always
been a clear difference between the two sides. Chavez's immediate
acceptance of a razor-thin margin of defeat - 50.7 percent against
- before all the votes were even counted should cut through all
the media hype about a "strongman" and a "dictator."
Chavez congratulated his opponents on their victory. As in previous
elections, he had publicly committed to accepting the results
before the vote, and had called on the opposition to do the same.
__
On the other side, the opposition tried
several oil and business strikes, and a military coup in April
2002, to win what they could not gain at the ballot box. The first
act of the short-lived coup government was to abolish the constitution
and dissolve the Supreme Court and the elected National Assembly.
The coup was reversed due to massive pro-democracy street demonstrations,
but eight months later the opposition once again tried to topple
the government with a devastating, management-led oil shutdown.
Unlike in the United States, where we have three sets of labor
laws that would have put the leaders of such a strike in jail,
the Chavez government allowed the strike to run its course, with
the economy crippled in the process.__
Only after all extra-legal means failed
to dislodge the government did the Venezuelan opposition resort
to the ballot box, exercising their constitutional right to a
recall referendum on the presidency in August 2004. They lost
by a margin of 59-41, and promptly refused to accept the result.
Although vote-rigging was nearly impossible under the dual electronic-plus-paper-ballot
voting system and the result was certified by the Carter Center
and the OAS, the opposition - which has its own media and invents
its own reality - to this day holds to conspiracy theories(1)
that the referendum was stolen by a fantastic electronic fraud.
In December 2005, seeing that it would lose congressional elections,
the opposition boycotted, despite the OAS and European Union observers'
condemnation of the boycott.
__The opposition did finally accept their
defeat in the December 2006 presidential elections, which Chavez
won with 63 percent of the vote and the highest turnout ever.
And now that they have finally won at the ballot box, there is
a possibility of an opposition emerging that is more willing to
play by the democratic rules of the game. The student movement
seems to have more elements that favor democratic means of challenging
the government, and may have played a role in convincing others
in the opposition to vote in the referendum. But they have not
transformed the opposition into a democratic movement.__
With regard to class, polls sponsored
by the opposition and the government show that poor and working
people are overwhelmingly pro-Chavez, and the upper classes against
him. There are obvious reasons for this class divide: the Chavez
government has provided health care to the vast majority of poor
Venezuelans, subsidized food, and increased access to education.
Real (inflation-adjusted) social spending per person has increased
by 314 percent over the eight years of the Chavez administration.
The proportion of households in poverty has dropped by 38 percent
- and this is measuring only cash income, not other benefits such
as health care and education.(2) Interestingly, the upper classes
have also done pretty well, but appear to oppose Chavez for mostly
ideological reasons, including his commitment to "21st century
socialism." The Chavez administration has also provided the
poor with more of a voice in government than they have ever had
previously.
On the questions of national sovereignty and empire, the lines
are also clearly divided in Venezuela. Leading opposition groups,
including some who were involved in the coup, have received U.S.
funding and other support. Washington's involvement in the coup
is well-documented and much deeper(3) than the vast understatements
and euphemisms used by the major US and international media describe
the US role. The Washington Post reported this week that the Bush
Administration has been funding unnamed student groups, presumably
opposition, up to and including this year.__
The Bush Administration has remained committed
to this day to regime change in Venezuela, through destabilization
and de-legitimation, although there are differences within the
State Department. Its tacit support for the completely unjustified
opposition boycott of the December 2005 congressional elections
is a good example of this strategy: giving up about 30 percent
of the Venezuelan congress just for the propaganda advantage of
having the media report on "a congress completely dominated
by Chavez." While the media focuses on Chavez' rhetoric,
such as his notorious UN speech in which he referred to President
Bush as the devil, his confrontation with Washington has been
inevitable and not of his choosing.__
Latin American racism, especially outside
of that directed against indigenous groups, is different than
in the United States because "race" is less well-defined;
but institutional racism is no less prevalent, as the noticeable
difference in skin color between the white elite and the poorer
classes throughout the region makes very clear. In Venezuela,
this difference of complexion is also quite visible between the
anti-Chavez and pro-Chavez demonstrations. Perhaps more importantly,
those who are aware of and against racism - including indigenous
and anti-racist groups - are overwhelmingly pro-Chavez, partly
because of his government's actions on behalf of indigenous rights,
including land reform and land titling, and constitutional rights.
(4) Needless to say, the opposition to Chavez - who is proud of
his African and indigenous heritage - also contains overtly racist
elements.__
Indigenous supporters outside Venezuela
include President Evo Morales of Bolivia, a close friend and ally
of Chavez. Other progressive Latin American presidents also have
close relationships with Chavez and see him as a very important
ally: Nestor Kirchner of Argentina, Rafael Correa of Ecuador and
although the international media is always trying to deny it,
President Lula da Silva of Brazil. Lula heads a divided government,
but he has consistently defended Chavez.(5) All of these leaders
understand the historic nature of what is happening in Latin America
- the majority of a region once known as 'the United States' backyard"
now has governments that are more independent of the United States
than Europe is. Chavez has played a huge role in this process,
most importantly through the Venezuelan government's billions
of dollars of lending and grants to governments - made without
policy conditions. Until a few years ago, Washington's main avenue
of influence in Latin America was through control over credit,
which was exercised through a creditors' cartel headed by the
International Monetary Fund (IMF). The collapse of this cartel
in recent years is the most important change in the international
financial system in more than three decades, and one that has
drastically reduced U.S. influence. Venezuela's provision of an
alternative source of credit has helped other democratic governments
to try and deliver on their electoral promises without the threat
of economic strangulation from abroad that, just a few years ago,
may have doomed them to a short life. It is thus helping to promote
democracy in the region.__
What about the charges that Venezuela
under Chavez has been moving toward "an authoritarian state'?
The denial of a broadcast license renewal to a TV station that
participated in a military coup and several other attempts to
topple the government, and that would not get a license in any
other democratic country, is hardly inappropriate (6); it was
also defended by other democratic presidents in the region, including
those of Brazil, Ecuador, and Bolivia. Venezuela's media is still
dominated by the opposition, and remains the most anti-government
media in the hemisphere. Then there is the controversial "enabling
law," which gives Chavez fairly broad temporary authority
to make certain legislation by executive order, subject to revocation
by the congress or referendum. But as the US State Department's
top official for Latin America, Thomas Shannon, commented when
the Venezuelan congress passed the law in January, "It's
something valid under the constitution. As with any tool of democracy,
it depends how it is used." And Chavez has hardly used the
enabling legislation at all - only to extract more concessions
from foreign oil companies.__
One can go through the list, but the point
is that one does not have to agree with every decision of the
Venezuelan government to see that there is little or nothing to
back up the absurd image of "authoritarian rule" that
the Chavez-haters have created. Unfortunately they have gotten
help from politicized groups such as "Reporters Without Borders,"
which receives funding from the "National Endowment for Democracy"
(which has funded groups involved in the overthrow of elected
governments, including Venezuela [2002] and Haiti [2004]); the
Committee to Protect Journalists, which is funded by big media
owners; and other organizations who are generally more autonomous
but whose independence seems to weaken under pressure with regard
to Venezuela. Bottom line: no reputable human rights organization
has claimed, nor would they, that civil liberties or human rights
have deteriorated under the Chavez government - or that it compares
unfavorably on these issues with the region.__
A historic transformation in underway
in Latin America. After more than a quarter century of neoliberal
economic reform, and the worst long-term economic growth failure
in more than a century, a revolt at the ballot box has elected
leaders who are looking for democratic alternatives that will
restore economic growth and development, and reduce poverty and
inequality.(7) The U.S. government is opposing these efforts;
a key element of its overall strategy is to demonize Chavez and
de-legitimize the democratic government of Venezuela. The U.S.
and international media have enthusiastically embraced this agenda,
with journalism that makes Judy Miller's worst articles in the
run-up to the Iraq war look fair and balanced by comparison.__
A more truthful and accurate reporting
and analysis of these events is sorely need.
Footnotes:
1.See Mark Weisbrot, David Rosnick and Todd Tucker, "Black
Swans, Conspiracy Theories, and the Quixotic Search for Fraud,"
Center for Economic and Policy Research, September 2004. [http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/venezuela_2004_09.pdf]
2.See Mark Weisbrot and Luis Sandoval, "The Venezuelan Economy
in the Chavez Years," Center for Economic and Policy Research,
July 2007. [http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/venezuela_2007_07.pdf]
Poverty figures here updated for first half 2007.
3. See Mark Weisbrot, "Venezuela's Election Provides Opportunity
for Washington to Change its Course" Aniston Sunday Star,
December 10, 2006. [http://www.cepr.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=649&Itemid=45]
4. See e.g., Michael Fox, "Indigenous March in Support of
Chavez in Venezuela," Venezuelanalysis.com, June 11, 2006.
[http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/news.php?newsno=1985]
5. See Gosman, Eleonara, "Lula: "Nadie Hará que
Discute con Chávez, es mi Amigo," Clarín,
July 7, 2007; and Mark Weisbrot, "President Bush's Trip to
Latin America is All About Denial," Center for Economic and
Policy Research, March, 2007
6. See Robert McChesney and Mark Weisbrot, "Venezuela and
the Media: Fact and Fiction [http://www.cepr.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1200];
Mark Weisbrot, "Eyes Wide Shut: The Media Looks at Venezuela
[http://www.cepr.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1269&Itemid=45]
7. See Mark Weisbrot, "Latin America: The End of an Era,"
International Journal of Health Services, Volume 37, Number 3
/ 2007, also available at [http://www.cepr.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=374&Itemid=8]
Mark Weisbrot is Co-Director of the Center
for Economic and Policy Research, in Washington, D.C. (www.cepr.net).
Latin
America watch
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