Serious Money
excerpted from the book
Wealth and Democracy
a political history of the
American rich
by Kevin Phillips
Broadway Books, 2002, paper
p47
Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936
We know now that Government by organized money is just as dangerous
as government by organized mob ...
p47
The strongest turning away of the United States from great wealth
and its abuses in the name of reform and democracy occurred under
Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, and Franklin D. Roosevelt
in the first four decades of the twentieth century.
The Republican Roosevelt-GOP moneyman
Mark Hanna called him "that damned cowboy"-was the first
president to seriously grapple with the excesses of the Gilded
Age. His predecessor, William McKinley, assassinated in 1901,
had been a major of Ohio Volunteers in the Civil War, the last
U.S. chief executive to have worn Union blue. Although acknowledged
as a friend of the workingman by the American Federation of Labor,
McKinley made few speeches in his 1900 reelection campaign, leaving
the feistier language to his vice presidential running mate.
[Theodore] Roosevelt, of course, thrilled
to a fight. Urban-bred, Harvard-educated, and too young to have
been in the Civil War, TR chose foes who, instead of blue or gray,
wore the diamond stickpins of "economic man"-the organizers
of the great trusts, the stockjobbers, the "malefactors of
great wealth," and the "criminal rich." They were
people to be scrutinized, not admired. His actions rarely matched
his rhetoric, but even mere words from the White House warmed
the Progressive climate. In 1899, as governor of New York, Roosevelt
had exchanged fears with historian Brooks Adams about the country
being "enslaved" by the organizers of the trusts. They
talked about Roosevelt's leading "some great outburst of
the emotional classes which should at least temporarily crush
the Economic Man." And now that he was president, Roosevelt
could wield his influence nationally.
The turnabout was extraordinary. Although
Bryan had lost his political battle in 1896, within six or seven
years many of his ideas and issues were marching forward again-and
even winning-under more sophisticated Progressive leadership.
Years later, Bryan's widow, editing his memoirs in 1925, claimed
as his legacies the federal income tax, popular election of U.S.
senators, publicity of campaign contributions, woman suffrage,
a department of labor, more stringent railroad regulation, monetary
reform, and, at the state level, initiative and referendum.
p52
... William Jennings Bryan ... by remaining a political force
through 1914 ... bolstered Progressive issues. The Republican
Party had its own Western ex-Populist wing as well as a more elite
eastern urban reform contingent. Much of this gentry, including
Roosevelt, had shunned Bryan in 1896. Now they embraced many of
the same ideas. Republican governors like California's Hiram Johnson,
New York's Charles Evans Hughes, and Wisconsin's Robert La Follette
took Progressive positions-La Follette, moving to the U.S. Senate
in 1906, was an especially fierce advocate-and Roosevelt also
could frequently count on the reformist wing of the Democratic
Party.
The result was a steadily enlarging Progressive
record and agenda. As part of the running tide, in 1903 a U.S.
Department of Commerce and Labor was established, with a bureau
of corporations authorized to investigate corporate behavior.
Railroad rate legislation, hitherto ineffectual, was given backbone
by the Hepburn Act of 1906. The Pure Food and Drug Act of the
same year struck at adulterated or fraudulently labeled products.
In 1906, Roosevelt offered a sweeping reform program-income and
inheritance taxes, federal licensing of corporations, and prohibition
of corporation political funds. And by 1910, no longer in the
White House and turning radical, he foreshadowed the even bolder
tenor of his imminent independent Progressive presidential bid.
"Every man," said T, "holds his property subject
to the general right of the community to regulate its use to whatever
degree the public welfare may require it."
The zenith came in 1912. On a new-party
platform that ranged from popular recall of judicial decisions
to minimum wage standards for working women, Roosevelt split the
Republican vote, electing Democrat Woodrow Wilson, also a progressive.
The U.S. Socialist Party simultaneously reached its own high-water
mark with presidential candidate Eugene Debs garnering almost
a million votes and over a thousand Socialists winning state and
local office. The irony was that some of Roosevelt's own leading
third-party supporters had come from Wall Street-Morgan partners
like George Perkins and Frank Munsey, partly committed to restraining
the candidate, but also well aware that it might take Progressivism
to head off socialism.
Bolstered by these convergences, Wilson's
first two years in the White House produced the Sixteenth and
Seventeenth Amendments to the U.S. Constitution, which respectively
authorized a federal income tax and required direct election of
U.S. senators to replace their selection by state legislatures,
as well as the Federal Reserve Act, the Clayton Antitrust Act,
and the establishment of the Federal Trade Commission.
p54
[World War II] outbreak in the summer of 1914 initially unnerved
U.S. wealthholders. As the European powers mobilized, the New
York Stock Exchange, fearful that foreign dumping of securities
might collapse prices, suspended trading and remained shut for
almost four months. After trading resumed, however, the Dow-Jones
Industrial Average soared in 1915 and reached a new high in 1916
as the U.S. economy began to hum with the profits of producing
war material for Europe (not until U.S. entry into the war in
1917 did income taxes, excess-profits taxes, and government regulation
begin to bite).
The rate of inflation, war's seemingly
inevitable Fifth Horseman, peaked in 1917-19, but the price index
continued to rise into 1920, by which point it had doubled. As
in the Civil War, workers lost ground because their wages did
not keep up. Farm prices, however, rose enough to catapult Iowa
farm values to the record high for 1920 shown in Chart 2.2. For
business, weighty taxes and regulation kept wartime inflation
from being the broad business incubator in 1917-18 that it had
been in Civil War days.
War's outbreak in 1914 withered the old
Progressive impetus. But once the U.S. declared war and mobilized
in 1917, government regulation of agriculture, industry, and railroads
proceeded apace, fulfilling a tougher set of interventionist and
even Socialist objectives. By years' end Washington was operating
the nation's railroads. The War Labor Board, in turn, had forced
collective bargaining and the eight-hour day on substantial segments
of industry.
Even so, the world war's half decade was
lucrative for corporations and the rich. In 1915 and 1916, the
lush years before U.S. entry, the top 1 percent had roughly the
same share of income and wealth they would register again in 1929.
Companies supplying the military had a particular field day. From
being just a munitions maker in 1914, duPont profited greatly
enough from U.S. wartime seizure of German chemical patents to
become a global force in that industry by the 1920s. In the meantime,
company profits jumped from X6 million in 1914 to $82 million
in 1916. The postwar value to duPont of plants built and governmentally
underwritten in wartime was added gravy. Revealingly, some of
the biggest drumbeaters for U.S. war involvement and profit-makers
from it-J. P. Morgan, the duPonts, Marcellus Hartley Dodge, and
Charles Schwab-were from families that had supplied the Northern
military during the Civil War.
The stock of Bethlehem Steel, run by Charles
Schwab, leader of the Armor Trust, climbed from 33 in July 1914
to a wartime peak of 600. General Motors shares soared from 78
to 750. Copper profits went over the moon. An index of nine ordnance
stocks jumped 311 percent in eighteen months. Stuart Brandes,
in his history of U.S. war profits, recalled volatile profits
and "tumultuous days on Wall Street and on regional commodity
exchanges as fortunes were made and occasionally lost. Successful
stock and commodity speculators became known, if male, as 'warhogs'
and, if female, as 'warsows.' "
War, the reformers complained, was restoring
the fortunes of capitalists that the Progressive era had put on
the defensive, and subsequent investigators cataloged some egregious
examples-over $ 1 billion spent for combat aircraft, with none
delivered, and so on. Popular indignation faded with war memories,
but rekindled after the 1929 Crash returned bank and corporate
behavior to the spotlight. In 1935 the popular magazine American
Mercury portrayed the war as "No. 4" in its series called
"Thieveries of the Republic." The "Merchants of
Death" became another well-worn phrase.
p60
... periods of war-generated inflation have often been followed
by disinflationary booms-the Gilded Age, the 1920s, and the 1980s
and 1990s-in which many Americans are left out, but heyday psychologies
dominate until a major bubble breaks.
This pattern was vivid in the twenties.
Conservatism held sway over both major parties, and when Wisconsin
senator Robert La Follette ran for president as a third-party
Progressive in 1924, his 16.6 percent of the national vote-concentrated
in farm, mining, and urban labor districts- was taken as proof
of no great appeal amid a prevailing bipartisan conservatism.
Tax cuts were the first pillar of boom-era
politics. In 1921 the GOP Congress had repealed the excess-profits
tax and reduced the maximum income surtax from 60 percent to 40
percent. Then the Tax Act of 1926 in turn repealed the gift tax
and reduced the income surtax and estate-tax maximum rates from
40 percent to 20 percent. In addition, Secretary Mellon's massive
combination of upper-bracket tax cuts, refunds, and remissions,
legal and otherwise, threw kerosene on what were still small speculative
fires.
Reduced federal spending, a second encouragement,
took shape as Woodrow Wilson's wartime budget deficits morphed
into peacetime surpluses big enough to reduce the federal debt
from $24 billion in 1920 to just $16 billion in 1930.
Deflation, the third fuel, replaced wartime
inflation. The happy combination of mild deflation and a large
budget surplus, a first since the 1890s, allowed the Federal Reserve
System and the banks to pursue precisely the expansive monetary
policy-abundant credit at relatively low interest rates-businessmen
and investors craved.
Easy consumer and private mortgage lending,
the fourth tinder, fed the boom by more than doubling from $17.3
billion in 1922 to $38.3 billion in 1929. The siren song of advertising
(especially through the new radio broadcasts), paired with the
new temptations of installment credit, served to convince millions
of Americans to buy Dodge coupes, Frigidaires, oil heating systems,
and Chris-Craft mahogany speedboats. With 1927-29 wage levels
only slightly higher than in 1919-20, many people bought the new
semiluxuries with money diverted from necessities. The Lynds,
in their study of Middletown, found telling examples. Of twenty-six
working-class families lacking bathroom facilities, twenty-one
had automobiles. Companies like Beneficial Finance and Household
Finance, small potatoes in 1920, grew 30 percent a year. Buying
on time soared from several hundred million dollars a year in
1920 to $7 billion by 1929, by which time extending credit to
consumers had become the nation's tenth biggest business.
p61
Corporate restructuring through mergers and holding company for
nations, sometimes good for productivity, also helped investment
bankers and promoters to price up assets and stock offerings.
In 1919, 89 mergers had involved 527 concerns; in 1928, 201 mergers
repackaged 1,259. So many family businesses were pulled into the
corporate orbit that nearly 20 percent of U.S. national wealth
shifted from private to corporate hands. So enlarged, the corporate
share of national wealth rose to about 30 percent, and the largest
100 corporations came to command about half of the total U.S.
industrial net income. Holding companies were another highlight
of twenties restructuring. According to the New York Stock Exchange,
of the 573 companies whose stock was traded actively in 1928,
395 were both holding companies and operating companies, and 92
did nothing but hold other companies' securities.
In retrospect, of course, the blaze of
opportunity was turning into a speculative conflagration. Paper
entrepreneurialism helped make the boom of the twenties much more
stock market-driven than even the booms of 1898-1901 and 1904
to 1907, which had also accompanied re structurings-the rise of
the great trusts and the Morgan-orchestrated rationalization of
industry after industry. As a greater share of the national economy
came under the corporate umbrella, more of its components and
transactions were also being financialized-pulled within the (rapidly
expanding) purview of bank loans, securities, or financial markets.
The mania for common stock was also telltale.
Until the twenties, the preferred stock of corporations had been
just that-senior securities preferred by investors over common
stock because of their cash dividends. Trading volume in common
stock was constrained accordingly. Then, in 1920, the U.S. Supreme
Court ruled that corporate dividends paid in stock were not taxable.
Thereafter, the twin psychologies of sidestepping ordinary income
tax rates and speculating for capital gains instead of seeking
cash dividends pushed common stock to the forefront. New offerings
grew from $30 million a month in 1926 to $800 million a month
in early 1929 and a billion dollars a month by late summer.
p61
Stockowner ranks expanded from under one million in 1914 to a
plausible estimate of six to nine million individuals and some
five to six million households (out of 29 million households in
the nation) in 1929. "Ma Bell" alone-the American Telephone
and Telegraph Corporation-had 139,000 shareholders in 1920 and
567,000 in 1930. This influx helps explain both the editorials
about the new "democracy" of share ownership and the
Dow-boosting expansion of annual volume on the New York Stock
Exchange from 143 million shares in 1918 to 1.125 billion in 1929.
p65
The Dow-Jones Industrial Average, after spending the first part
of 1929 in a range slightly above 300, put on a summer sprint
to September's peak of 381. Over the next three years, and predicted
by hardly anyone, the Dow tumbled 340 points, bottoming in July
1932 at 41.
The term "Crash" is also a bit
of a misnomer. Despite unfolding into the biggest economic downturn
in U.S. history and a grim reaper of net worth from Bangor to
San Diego, the events of 1929-30, unlike previous panics, caused
no major investment firm to fail during that time. Pynchon &
Co. was the first in 1931. From September 1929 to August 1932
the market averages took almost three years to fall the distance
climbed in the previous eight. After a winter rally following
the brutal first autumn, there was no new precipice, just a long
downhill slope.
Commentators usually explain the market's
descent as a blend of several causes. One involved how the 1928-29
overproduction of goods, which the public could not afford to
keep buying, was already hinting a recession, so that autumn 1929
weakness in construction and auto and steel production helped
prime the stock market for scared selling. A second blamed Federal
Reserve willingness to let the money supply shrink in 1930-32
for turning a bad recession into a depression. Nor was there any
other global "lender of last resort."
By a third explanation, stock market tremors
had scared overextended banks in the U.S. and abroad into cutting
back loans and international trade financing, which deepened the
economic crisis. A fourth factor was the collapse in the mid and
late twenties not just of U.S. crop prices but of international
commodity prices-in rubber, coffee, sugar, and tin, among others.
And most experts concurred that souring business and consumer
confidence and the widening 1930-33 failures of U.S. and foreign
banks fed one another.
The economist J. Kenneth Galbraith put
more emphasis on the ripple effect of the stock market itself.
The initial autumn free fall, which knocked the Dow down by some
40 percent, spread into the real economy-as, for example, declines
in freight-car loadings, commodities, and steel ingots. And once
the stock slide resumed in spring 1930 following the late-November
to March rally, the market slump remained a relentlessly negative
psychological backdrop through mid-1932.
p67
However, because the rich of the 1920s and 1930s got about three-quarters
of their income from dividends and capital gains, the corporate
and securities debacles had to be devastating. The market value
of the stocks traded on the New York exchange alone dropped from
$89.6 billion on December 1, 1929, to $15.6 billion on July 1,
1932. The ranks of millionaires slimmed almost in proportion,
from 25,000-35,000 in 1929 to some 5,000 in 1932-33.
p74
... during the 1935 hearings before the Senate Finance Committee
on I the Roosevelt administration's proposed Wealth Tax Act, U.S.
Internal Revenue Service counsel (and future U.S. Supreme Court
justice) Robert H. Jackson testified that whereas fortunes could
once be spent by the next generation, "now they not only
perpetuate themselves, they grow.... Furthermore, such estates
are largely perpetuated in trusts, and every legal and economic
obstacle to their dissipation is employed.... Most of the large
estates as at present managed, we find, not only perpetuate themselves
but are larger as they pass from generation to generation."
The persistence and growth of inherited fortunes over the remainder
of the twentieth century would make Jackson's words prescient.
The downturn that began in 1937 reversed
as war clouds formed over Europe. The thicker they grew over Poland,
Austria, and Czechoslovakia, the brighter were the skies for America's
own economy. The year 1939 was better, 1940 better still, and
then Pearl Harbor turned on the lights in factories, warehouses,
and dockyards from Maine to California. Recovery came fastest
along the two coasts, producing remarkable upsurges in the average
income per family between 1938 and 1942: in Boston ($2,455 to
$3,618), Hartford ($2,207 to $5,208), New York ($2,760 to $4,044),
Washington, D.C. ($2,227 to $5,316), Los Angeles ($2,031 to $3,469),
and San Francisco ($2,201 to $3,716).
Good economic reasons, at least, underpinned
war nostalgia. Few conflicts have spread so much money so widely.
Ready for a giant jobs program, Americans got one-in the first
six months of 1942 federal procurement officers placed orders
for $100 billion worth of equipment, more than the U.S. economy
had ever produced in a single year. By the end of 1943 money was
being spent at five times the peak rate of World War I. Engineers,
technicians, specialists, and skilled workers seem to have been
the biggest gainers, along with farmers-the unfailing beneficiaries
of wartime food needs-and those of the untrained able to develop
skills. Workers able to shift to a war production job often found
their wages climbing by 20, 30, or 40 percent The pay of women
factory operatives, for example, rose 50 percent just between
1941 and 1943 Between 1939 and 1945 wages in manufacturing industries
went up by percent while the estimated cost of living rose only
29 percent because o price controls. Many who were unemployed
as of 1937 six or seven years later found themselves able to buy
war bonds.
Wartime taxes on the rich were close to
punitive. The bite on family heads earning the average $40 to
$50 a week was not. After the deprivations of the thirties, wartime
rationing, not taxes or lack of money, was what limited public
buying. Purchases of expensive clothing and jewelry store . Used
cars were at a premium. And despite food rationing, the number
of supermarkets climbed from 4,900 in 1939 to 16,000 in 1944
At war's end, Americans were rolling in
cash. Average weekly pay had been boosted from $24.20 in 1940
to $44.39 in 1945, not just by high wage rates but by huge overtime
and the earnings of 6.5 million women mostly middle-aged and married,
new to the workforce. Many families had their first discretionary
income. Between mid-1943 and mid-1945 Americans stashed about
a quarter of their take-home pay. By Japan's surrender, an amazing
$140 billion was in liquid assets (mostly in small savings accounts
and war bonds) - twice the entire national income for 1939! By
one estimate, this was enough to buy three times the amount of
consumer goods that could plausibly be produced during the first
year of peace.
p76
Back in 1939, the top fifth of male wage and salary recipients
had collected 48.7 percent of the total while the three middle
fifths got only 47.8 percent. By 1949 the top group's share had
slimmed to 40.1 percent and the middle three were receiving 55.3
percent. Family income distribution over the full decade showed
much the same: a shrinking share at the top (and to a lesser extent
in the highest 10 percent). The improvement in compensation concentrated
in the 50th to 89th percentiles: the middle class, blue-collar
as well as white-collar.
The Great Compression, so favorable to
the middle class and labor at the (seeming) expense of the top
1 percent, continued into the 1950s. Politically, at least, the
middle-class ethos ruled. To commentators like Frederick Lewis
Allen, Robert Heilbroner, and David Riesman, the rich had become
"inconspicuous consumers," either suffering from a guilt
complex or afraid of giving visible offense. Their big houses
had been sold off to become orphanages or old-age homes, and fewer
upper-income families had servants. In 1953 the new Republican
administration of Dwight Eisenhower, far from imitating the deep
tax cuts of Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon after the First World
War, decided against seeking a reduction in the 91 percent top
income tax rate, which had been kept in effect after World War
II.
The take-home pay of America's best-compensated
corporate chief executives was only a shadow of the $20 million
and $50 million net proceeds widely reported a half century later
in the Second Gilded Age. Frederick Lewis Allen, in The Big Change:
1900-1950, calculated the disposable income of the best-paid CEO
of 1950, Charles E. Wilson of General Motors: "Let us suppose
that it had all been handed to him in cash in 1950, and that he
had had to pay a federal income tax on the whole $626,300, and
on nothing else-and without any exceptional deductions. The government
would have taken some $462,000 of it, leaving him only some $164,300."
Beneath this democratic imagery, however,
another contrary sea change was gathering. U.S. technology and
manufacturing had been revolutionized by wartime demands. Executives
in company after company found themselves selling products commercially
unfeasible before Pearl Harbor. Petroleum, in particular, had
been made to yield a rainbow of profitable wonders: synthetic
rubber, plastics, fibers, and petrochemicals. Victory over Germany
and Japan, besides ending domestic constraints, also gave U.S.
corporations and banks new global opportunities and markets. In
June 1949, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average ended two years of
muddling in the 165-190 range (1927 levels), transcended postwar
depression fears, and began what would be a two-decade leap. The
top 1 percent of Americans, who owned about half of the stocks,
enjoyed quiet gains that dwarfed those of ordinary wage earners.
With capital gains excluded, the income
statistics for 1947-57 confirmed the continuation of the Great
Compression into peacetime. The greatest share of a rapidly expanding
national income went to Middle America, the slimmest gains to
the top 5 percent.
p88
Like the booming twenties, which President Reagan sought to imitate
with tax cuts and permissive regulation, the eighties began slowly
in the uncomfortable bowl of a deep downturn caused by the high
interest rates needed to squelch inflation. Thus, when Forbes
magazine, following irregular compendia elsewhere, published its
first annual list of the four hundred richest Americans in 1982,
the debut made no great splash. Circumstances were not particularly
celebratory. In historical terms, neither was the makeup of the
new list, so much a product of oil price inflation, and showing
a high ratio of inheritance to new industrial achievement.
Next to the titans of the Gilded Age,
the individual billionaires of 1982, five of them children of
Texas oilman H. L. Hunt, represented a telling slippage in both
real wealth and political and economic stature. To make the wealth
comparison requires turning the dollars of, let us say, 1910 into
their 1982 equivalents
Multiplying the estimated fortunes of
1900-1914 by eleven, we find John D. Rockefeller with a 1982 equivalent
of $11 billion, Andrew Carnegie next with $4.5 billion, and so
on. The actual 1982 list, by contrast, included thirteen individual
billionaires, led by little-known shipowner Daniel Ludwig, with
$2 billion. Parenthetically, the list of thirty below has been
reconfigured from the original list by combining members of the
same family, notably Rockefellers, duPonts, Hunts (5), Basses,
and Mellons.
Like the bottom-scraping Dow-Jones Industrial
Average, the first Fortes list, with its unprecedented number
of oilmen and oil families as well as timber, commodity, and real
estate magnates, portrayed an economy in the stagflationary doldrums.
The only technology fortunes in the top thirty were those of computer
makers David Packard and William Hewlett. The prominence of so
many families also reflected the lack of new fortunes or new wealth-creating
forces beyond inflation. Speculation in the press ran more to
the death of shares or equities-the theme of a famous Business
Week cover-than to the birth of a new wealth generation.
Policy and politics were also in disarray.
The supply-side economists advising the Reagan White House, unhappy
in 1982 as Congress and the White House negotiated legislation
partly rescinding the 1981 tax cuts, gloomed through the year
about their advice being ignored, their great fiscal experiment
undermined. The Farm Belt was in trouble, and the Great Lakes
industrial region was smarting under its new, dismissive nickname:
the Rust Belt. Only a short time after the Forbes list appeared
U.S. unemployment topped 10 percent. By the end of the year, median
family income had slipped back to its 1974-75 lows.
As in the early twenties, however, the
darkness soon brought a dawn. Although this volume splits the
eighties and the nineties into partly separate booms, one can
point to them jointly as decades of capital markets generous to
new enterprise. Supply-side author George Gilder, among the few
conservative thinkers to foresee the fruits, preached endless
assurance that microprocessor, laser, and microbiology companies-small,
entrepreneurial foxes already running circles around the staggering
elephants of the Dow-Jones-would justify giving capitalism a new
political mandate. Technology was gathering force in the eighties,
dropping hints of greater things to come. Sector firms were among
the stock market highfliers of 1979-82: Tandy, Teledyne, Wang
Labs, Prime Computer, Datapoint, Rolm, MCI, and many more. A decade
earlier the stock market's "Nifty Fifty" had also had
a high-technology vanguard: Polaroid, Xerox, Electronic Data Systems.
Breakdowns of manufacturing spending during the 1979-83 slump
and turnaround showed high-tech industries alone performing in
a steady uptrend.
At the same time, Gilder's technological
enthusiasms considerably exceeded those of the White House. Ronald
Reagan had been speaking more broadly in saying, "What I
want to see above all is that this remains a country where someone
can always get rich." He and his treasury secretary, Donald
Regan, a former chairman of the giant stockbrokerage firm Merrill
Lynch, talked about replicating some of the moods and policies
of the 1920s. Their most conspicuous inattention was to the earlier
decade's technological underpinnings.
No Henry Ford or Thomas Edison, leading
lights of the twenties, stood out in the eighties. Productivity
gains were still in their Santa Clara and Palo Alto adolescence.
The entrepreneurialism admired and understood by President and
Mrs. Reagan was that of their four-decade Southern California
acquaintances: movies, real estate, television syndication, publishing,
retailing, fashion, and wholesaling. The products that Wall Streeter
Regan knew best were financial: stocks, options, and deals. So
when high-tech groups like the American Business Conference and
the Semiconductor Industry Association looked to Washington for
help against foreign business-government collaboration, the president
and his advisers were scarcely more attracted to helping high-tech
than to pushing a labor-backed "industrial policy" on
behalf of embattled Rust Belt industries. Under both Reagan and
Bush, conservative governments declined to "pick winners."
Thus, while the Reagan years brought economic
growth, especially in 1984-85, technology made no great leap forward,
either in stock market capitalization or in productivity, as Chart
3.25 will illustrate. Looking back from the nineties, many Silicon
Valley venture capitalists dismissed the eighties as a weak prelude.
Most of the nation's economic growth came in the services sector.
And too much, critics quipped, was financed by a credit card.
_ ~
Four engines powered the expansion of
the economy that began in 1982. Military spending increased enormously,
pouring money into defense contractors and military installations.
Corporate investment grew, favored by 1981 tax legislation, putting
substantial money into computers but far more into office buildings
and construction. The third engine was debt, which ballooned as
governments, corporations, and individuals borrowed as rarely
before, plowing most of that back into the economy. Fourth, much
like the 1920s, financial activities accelerated-from stock market
gains and their wealth effect to mergers and leveraged buyouts,
dealmaking, and the steady growth of bank and investment sector
employment. Expanding debt and the profits of innovative finance,
both frequent boom companions, also stimulated luxury consumption.
Beyond applauding markets, the economic
ideology of mainstream Republicanism during the twentieth century
was to promote wealth in general rather than specific industrial
sectors. Not surprisingly the disinflation, deregulation, and
tax cuts of the Reagan and Bush administrations favored financial
assets, the principal repositories of serious wealth. Between
1982 and 1992 the Dow-Jones Industrial Average trebled in nominal
dollars, which meant a doubling even after inflation. Paper entrepreneurs,
a term coined by political economist Robert Reich, took an unusual
share through merger and leveraged buyout activities. Thanks to
stocks, tax changes, real estate, and buyout opportunities, inherited
wealth held its place, bolstered by the lack of any major new
challenges to the status quo.
The noted economist Charles Kindleberger,
in a mid-1990s analysis, capsuled his qualms about the eighties.
Much of the money individuals received from the 1981-86 reductions
of the top income tax bracket from 70 percent to 28 percent, said
Kindleberger, "seems to have been spent on consumption: second
and third houses, travel, luxury apparel, cars, jewelry, yachts
and the like, rather than being saved and invested. Some savings
were held in liquid form to take advantage of 'investment' opportunities
in funds for mergers and acquisitions, takeovers, or arbitrage
in the securities of companies possibly subject to takeovers;
in other words, held liquid for trading in assets rather than
being invested in capital equipment for production."
Between 1979 and 1989 the portion of the
nation's wealth held by the top 1 percent nearly doubled, skyrocketing
from 22 percent to 39 percent, probably the most rapid escalation
in U.S. history... the extraordinary extent to which the Reagan
and Bush administrations of 1981 to 1993 benefited the top 1 percent
rather than the rest of the population. Economist Edward Wolff,
noting the nineteenth-century distinction between Europe as the
continent of hierarchy and the United States as the seat of opportunity,
commented that "by the late 1980s, the situation appeared
to have completely reversed, with much higher concentration of
wealth in the United States than in Europe."
By 1992, twelve years of Republican presidents
had brought little new direction in wealth save for an end to
oil domination. Just three of that years thirty richest Americans
represented technology: Bill Gates and Paul Allen of Microsoft,
and Ross Perot. Otherwise, the economic strategy of 1920s replication,
of bolstering corporations and expanding financial assets, had
been a roaring success. Wealth had ballooned, making the top individual
and family fortunes of 1992 two to three times the size of their
1982 counterparts. The gap between the rich and everyone else
was yawning to widths unseen since the 1920s and 1930s.
Wealth
and Democracy
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